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 The Roster Doctor identifies some targets
and some guys to let go in week 2 of the NBA season.
If you could sell high on a team, you’d have to think the Knickerbockers won’t stay above .500 all year. And I’d love to buy low on the 2-5 Philadelphia team with that great inside-outside combo and some problems with spacing. But no, we’re talking fantasy basketball, and individuals, so let’s take a look at some overperforming and underperforming players and try to identify their real values for you. Sell-Hi Nene Hilario Nene has 300 games under his belt, and hasn’t once averaged over a block a game or twelve points a game. He has a career free throw average of 64.8%, and a career number from the line at 53.1%. This isn’t a cut and dry situation though – don’t sell him for peanuts. For one, he’s getting almost eight minutes a game more than his career average, and he’s the starting center on a fast-paced team. If no-one will give you somewhat equal value, keep him. Just expect more like 12 and 8 with a block and 54/64 percentages instead of the 16 and 9 with two blocks and 67/74 percentages he’s giving now. And look, I didn’t even mention that he’s averaged only 49 games a year over his career. Whoops. Andrei Kirilenko How is AK-47 averaging a three-year high in minutes a game while coming off the bench? Well, for one, Mehmet Okur is with his ailing father in Turkey right now. For another, Kirilenko found his ability to rebound again suddenly by playing more of a reserve power forward role. He’s cracked double digits twice already in this young season, after only doing it three times all of last year. Here’s the kicker, though: He cracked double digit rebounds three times at the beginning of last season, in the first month. And then never did it again. In fact, it’s useful to check out his splits for last November, because they look great , even compared to this year’s good numbers: He put up 11 points, seven rebounds and six assists last November, along with two steals and blocks a game. Then his rebounding numbers dropped, slowly, every month, until he was unhappy and starting less often. This year? He’s not even starting in the first month. (Hope that his index finger injury is not a big deal and move this man quickly.) Ben Gordon Gordon must be playing for a contract. After putting up 43% on field goals last year, he’s all the way up to 48%, which is pretty good for a 6’ 3” shooting guard. In fact, it’s probably unsustainable for a guy that takes over a third of his shots from behind the three point line. Take advantage of someone that needs threes badly and try to get a more well-rounded player, someone that can do better than a young Raja Bell, someone that can get you more than three rebounds and three assists a game, or can get you a steal or a block a game. Gordon’s game is too one-sided for that to not be an issue just because he’s hitting over two threes a game. Unless, of course, that’s all you need from him. Buy-Lo Elton Brand Brand is not even 30 years old. Isn’t that a surprise? After the injuries, the trades, the bickering, the posturing in the media, the side ventures in Los Angeles, all that drama – it seems like he’s a grizzled veteran. Instead, he’s a relatively young 29, and he’s got a long 621 game career in which he’s put up 20 and 10 with over two blocks a game and great percentages for a big man. It may be too late after last nights’ little  explosion, but there’s going to be more of the same coming from this first round talent, and if you can buy it for less than first round talent, you have to Buy Lo on this Brand. Josh Howard This should not constitute some sort of endorsement of his political views, nor am I necessarily buying right into this team working well. Jason Kidd is old, the team has holes, and Howard has a hurt wrist. Why am I recommending him then?? Well, for one, he should come cheap. Second? This team is not the same team under Rick Carlisle. They are attempting 8-10% more shots per game, and pushing the pace. Look, no matter what you think of Howard, a 34% career three-point shooter is not going to suddenly go in the tank and shoot 20% from downtown all year. His ‘hustle stats’ are down again, and he’s probably not the guy we thought he was going to be, but if you can get him cheap, why not? He’ll still score twenty, drop a three, and gather in seven plus rebounds a game. That’s useful. Randy Foye This might be a controversial pick. Foye was just taken out of the starting point guard role in favor of Sebastian Telfair, and has only had two decent games since. And in those two games, he’s gone 0-8 from three point territory, so those games weren’t without their warts. What is to like then? He played over 34 minutes in both games, and he had an assist-to-turnover ratio of 13-to-1 combined. That will get your coach to put you back in the game. This team has not changed so much that it doesn’t need an outside shooter at point guard. The best offensive runs for the Wolves to date have come with McCants, Miller, and Love around Jefferson, and we all know Sebastian Telfair can’t shoot. Foye would make four good shooters around a central inside force, and he showed real upside in March and April last year, combining to go for over 13 points a game, five assists per game, and over a three and a half per game. He’s still that same player, try to remember those days, and go Buy Lo on Foye.
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