The Roster Doctor has some opinions about the New York
trades in his newest Sell-Hi Buy-Lo.

Buy-Lo Sell-Hi

Sometimes a team that’s doing well masks the lowered value of players on that team – look at the Lakers, and many of those players are underperforming projections even while the team dominates. Often, a bad team masks good fantasy value – look at the great seasons being had so far by OJ May and Marc Gasol on that Memphis team. The best thing to do is try to ignore the brand on their jerseys and think clearly about a player’s production, so you can know if you should Buy Lo or Sell Hi.
(Editor's Note: This article was written on the assumption that Jamal Crawford was traded to the Golden State Warriors for Al Harrington; and that Zach Randolph and Mardy Collins were actually traded to the LA Clippers for Tim Thomas and Cuttino Mobley.)

Sell-Hi

Zach Randolph

This one might be too obvious. Going from New York and Coach D’Antoni to Los Angeles and Coach Dunleavy is a bitter pill for the mercurial tweener forward. A lot of Randolph’s value this year has been tied up in his new found love for threes (.6 a game), his scoring (20.6), and his rebounding (12.5). But the Knickerbockers lead the league in scoring (105.3 a game) and the Clippers are fourth-to-last (90.3 a game). Looking at their relative paces, that’s five possessions more a game for the Clippers, which means five less shots for the whole team. Then you factor in that Dunleavy probably won’t love his small forward taking threes at a 29% clip, and the fact that Randolph all of a sudden joins to double-digit rebounders, and most of his strengths go out the window. Get what you can now, even if this isn’t a true Sell Hi situation, since most owners will know what you are trying to do.

John Salmons

Yes, it’s nice to have drafted a guy like Salmons low, and suddenly own a guy that puts up almost twenty points a game with nice rebounds, assists and steals. Why would I give up my cracker-jack small forward now, you ask, when he’s playing so well? Well, for a multitude of reasons. The first is obvious: Kevin Martin has been out, is the starting shooting guard and the scorer for this team, and should be back within a week. So take some points off of that tally. And then Francisco Garcia is a week away from practicing, and he’s the Small Forward of the Future in Sac-To, so take a couple minutes off that career-high 39 minutes a game that Salmons has been averaging so far this year. That trickles down and steals from his value in all of his categories. Last? This team has been playing Jason Thompson at small forward in an attempt to bolster rebounding while going big. Not that this will go on forever, but it does show you how much this team (currently 5-8) is trying to keep an eye on the future. The further that record drops, the fewer minutes Salmons gets, as one of the few veterans on the team.

Pau Gasol

Looking at his season averages, you might be happy with Pau’s performances to date. He’s averaging 16 and 10 with great percentages, you say. He’s still blocking shots and he’s perfect on the inside for me. He’s even handing out 3.7 dimes a game, you say! Yes, I say, all those assists are coming off of shots he’s not taking. Look, he took 14 attempts his last year in Memphis, 12 attempts per game last year, and now he’s down to 11 attempts per game this year. Even if you make more than half your attempts, it’s very hard to even average 18 points a game (like a second rounder should), when you are only taking 11 shot attempts a game. And after you take all this into account, look at his last two games. They are a perfect example of the inconsistencies you are going to get while Phil Jackson plays around with matchups game to game. 34 points, six rebounds, three assists and no blocks against Chicago, followed up by four points (!), nine rebounds and nine assists against Phoenix. Wait for one of those 30+ pointers and move him. (One quick caveat: Gasol’s a great roto player because of those percentages, so if you own him in a rotisserie league, please ignore the above.)

Buy-Lo

Cuttino Mobley

Unfortunately, this is another obvious play here that may not work. But try you should. Remember Raja Bell just three years ago, and how happy he was under D’Antoni? A three and a half per game, almost 15 points a game – Bell was relevant. He was useful. Now he’s terrible. Take that transition and throw it in reverse for Mobley. Before languishing in LA, Mobley once took five three pointers a game! I think D’Antoni wouldn’t mind, especially if he was making two of them a game. Throw that extra three pointer in, and you have a player scoring 17 a game, with two threes, almost a steal-and-a-half a game, and pretty good percentages for wing. Tell me you can’t find a place for that on your team. (And yes, Ricky Davis and Eric Gordon are winner, but they are still playing for the slow-footed Clippers team, and one is a hot-headed retread, and the other an inconsistent rookie. I'm taking Mobley if I can.)

Al Harrington

Sense a theme here? D’Antoni took up his pledge of making New York run, and has the highest pace factor and the highest-scoring offense in the league. There was only one place in the NBA where Harrington could have gone and had his value go up. Welcome to the Knickerbockers, Baby Al. Now let’s fit you right into Zach Randolph’s role, where your better shooting from long distance should easily make you put up17 and 6 with two threes a game. Don Nelson, put the whiskey away. You let your ego get in the way of a perfect player for your system. Enjoy Jamal Crawford and those head-scratching, one-footed, double-covered heaves from 28 feet. 

Carmelo Anthony

The good: Melo is averaging a career high in rebounds, and it seems to be a legit step forward in his game. He went from six three years ago, to 7.4 last year, and is now at eight. He’s gobbled in 39 rebounds in his past four games, and his team needs him to rebound with their lack of depth at the four and five. The bad: Melo is shooting below 40% and has a new point guard. He hasn’t cracked 21 points since new point guard Chauncey Billups arrived, and took as few as ten shots with Big Shot Billups in town. The ugly: on November 13, in a game that he usually gets up for (Cleveland), Melo went for a paltry 18 and eight, with two assists and six turnovers on 41.7% from the floor, showing all of his new-found faults this year. Put this all together, and I see a guy trying to mesh with a new point guard. And once he does, I suspect that his field goal percentage will return to his career levels (46%), and the accompanying rise in his scoring will go nicely with his new focus on rebounding. Go Buy Lo.