There’s no sugar-coating this one. This is a pretty putrid team.

At least, that’s what can be said about the Giant offense. They scored the second-least runs in the major leagues (only three more than the Padres!) and started the year with an old offense – even without the ‘ageless’ Barry Bond bringing the average age up.

Until late last year, there wasn’t even much hope for the future. They did try to bring down the average age by bringing up all the powerless corner outfielders and slap-hitting middle infielders they could find. They threw it all against the wall, and no-one stuck. Not one of the many prospects showed much promise at first.

Until Pablo Sandoval tore through 2008 in the minor leagues with a combined batting average over .335. He knocked the door down and continued his tear with a .345 batting average in the major leagues. Okay, so maybe the team has one young player on the offensive side if the ball worth keeping around.

And they still have quantity if not quality coming up behind him. Perhaps one of John Bowker, Travis Ishikawa, Nate Schierholtz, Eguenio Velez and Emmanuel Burris will turn out to be an above-average major league. Let’s not hold our breath, even if there are things to like about each of them.

On the other side of the ball, the Giants are actually well-stocked. Reigning Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum joined solid strikeout man Matt Cain at the top of the rotation. Jonathan Sanehez is young and has missed bats over his career. Randy Johnson probably still has something left, and Barry Zito, well he can still throw the ball with his left hand, kind of. The bullpen has Alex Hinshaw and Brian Wilson as possible pre-peak pitchers, and also Jeremy Affeldt, a former top prospect that has found a niche in the pen.

All in all, there are some glimmers of hope. But without a legitimate hitter or two (and I’m not talking about rapidly aging middle infielders), this team is just going to muddle around in the middle of the worst division in baseball.

Three Up

Matt Cain
Cain put up a 3.76 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and 186 strikeouts last year. Though not all of those numbers is pretty, it’s comforting to know that his baseline year looks pretty good. There was nothing unsustainable in his year least year – the BABIP was .304, he left 75.3% of his baserunners on, and his strikeout rate and walk rate were all in line with his previous numbers.

The better news is that Cain has the chance to put up a big year this year. If you combine the 1.26 WHIP from 2007 with the 8.45 K/9 from 2005 and the 217 innings from last year, you’ll have a really nice season. Possibly even a fantasy ace season – at fantasy #3 prices.

Fred Lewis
On the good side of the ledger, Lewis has the ability to get on base (9.9% career walk rate), steal a base (26 out of 34 career stolen base rate), and some pop (.440 SLG last year). On the bad side of the ledger are his strikeouts (25% career strikeout rate) and the splits versus lefties (.727 career OPS vs. southpaws).

Back to the good news. The rest of the crowded outfield in San Francisco (save Aaron Rowand) has worse splits. And Lewis only struck out 21% of the time in the minors, so he could actually cut down on his strikeouts. If he does that, he’ll put the ball in play more and have a chance at 30 steals. And that is good news.

Pablo Sandoval
Sandoval should be everyone’s favorite C-eligible non-catcher in re-draft leagues. He probably won’t retain the position eligibility after this year (his defense doesn’t play anywhere, but plays worst behind the plate), so don’t go overboard in a keeper league.

But this year? In the spirit of Ryan Doumit, Josh Willingham and Brandon Inge, Sandoval will be a great catcher this year, if only because he will hit like a non-catcher and play more often than most catchers. He should offer major contributions to batting average as a non-walking (2.7% walk rate last year) high-contact (87.6% contact rate) bat-slinger. With a low HR/FB number of 7.7% and a miniscule fly-ball rate of 28.9%, he won’t hit you many home runs though. Remember that before you pick him in a single-digit round.

Three Down

Tim Lincecum
There’s only one way to from a Cy Young season. No, his strand rate wasn’t unsustainable (77.9% is a little high, though), and his BABIP wasn’t bad (.313). He struck out gobs of hitters (265), and his walk rate wasn’t terrible (3.33 BB/9). By all accounts, this is a young ace pitching well.

But you really have to think about injury before picking a starting pitcher in the first three rounds. There’s just a higher likelihood that a pitcher will go down for the entire year than a position player. Then, add the fact that the Giants rode Lincecum like a rented mule last year, and the risk mounts. Check out my article here about his use, and then think about the fact that the diminutive ace averaged more pitches per start then any other pitcher in baseball, more starts with 130+ pitches, and more ‘Pitcher Abuse Points’ than any other pitcher in baseball. He may be a freak of nature, but no-one in baseball is pitching as often as Lincecum, and that can’t be good for his long-term future.

Randy Winn
Put together some of the worst stats from Winn’s last three years, and he’d put up a .262 season with 10 home runs and 10 stolen bases. Of course, he probably won’t do that, but at 34 years old, those legs won’t last much longer. A relatively high BABIP has kept his batting average up over the last two years, and since he’s not hitting too many line drives (19.6% career), it’s probably because of his decent speed. Is Winn going to keep it up? I’m guessing one of these years his borderline fantasy value is going to dissapear completely.

Brian Wilson
If he drops far enough in your draft, Wilson will have value. He did suffer some bad luck last year, as his .336 BABIP could have been lower. If a couple fewer balls drop in, this beach boy closer wouldn’t have had an ERA at 4.62. However, he did have control over two things: his walk rate and his home run rate. Both were poor. He gave up over 4 walks a game, and over a home run a game. Since his home park normally depressed home runs, that second number is either a sign that he’s not that good, or a sign that his numbers will average out next year. Take your pick, but just don’t choose him in the middle tier of closers because he comes with considerable risk.

Three for Value

Randy Johnson
The Unit had quite a renaissance last year. After missing most of 2007, he went for 184 innings in 2008, with 173 Ks, 11 wins, and 3.91 / 1.24 ratios. Given that he’s going to a much better pitcher’s park in San Francisco, it is reasonable to think that he could better the ratios, even if more wins or Ks are not necessarily in order from the 45-year-old elder statesmen. Of course, he could throw out that back again and have to go to the old folk’s home for rehab, or even just quit the game after his next injury. Take him as your last pitcher, though, and you may be handsomely rewarded.

Jonathan Sanchez
Sanchez, though from a different part of his career, is similar in his sleeper-hood. Take him late in the game, and you could get a middle-of-the rotation fantasy starter for cheap. He’s always shown that he can miss bats (9.07 K/9 career), but he’s always struggled with his control (4.54 BB/9 career). His 4.27 BB/9 last year was the best of his career, and many projections have him bettering that number. If he could somehow walk under 4 a game (he did so most of the time in the minors), he would suddenly have great value.

Emmanuel Burriss
Call this spot “San Francisco Second Baseman.” It could be either of the Giants’ slap-hitting, no-power guys in Burriss or Eugenio Velez, but either way, here’s hoping one wins the job outright. With the Giants using spring training to work Velez at different positions in hopes of creating their own Chone Figgins, it looks like Burriss will win the bulk of the at-bats at second. This should mean an okay batting average and 30 steals, which would make him a late steal at his position.

Three Prospects to Know

Angel Villalona
The #44-ranked prospect by Baseball America, Villalona is exciting because he is so young. Though his .264/.313/.436 line at A-ball last year may not seem exciting, the fact that it came from a 17-year-old should mean he deserves the attention he is getting. Which corner infield position he will play is up for debate, and when he’ll show up in the majors is also not known, but the chatter is still there, so file this name away.

Madison Bumgarner
Bumgarner, on the other hand, is older, has shown great number ins the minors so far, and has risen to the #9 spot on the BA prospect list. His 154 Ks against only 21 BBs in A-ball were mighty impressive, as were the 3 home runs he gave up all year. Oh, and I haven’t even mentioned that he’s a lefty. He’s 19, has a killer triple-digit fastball, and the makeup of a champion according to those that have worked with him.

Tim Alderson
A year older, a righty, and the owner of a less velocity on his fastball, Alderson has still put up some nice stats next to Bumgarner. He had 124 Ks against 34 BBs and only 4 home runs all year last year in A-ball, which is nothing to sneeze at. He may be a consolation prize, but he’s a good one.

Projected Lineup

Fred Lewis, .279 AVG – 12 HR – 40 RBI– 100 R– 30 SB
Edgar Renteria, .281 AVG – 11 HR – 55 RBI – 85 R – 8 SB
Randy Winn, .282 AVG – 11 HR – 65 RBI – 75 R – 18 SB
Pablo Sandoval, .311 AVG – 16 HR – 90 RBI – 85 R – 0 SB
Bengie Molina, .275 AVG – 16 HR – 82 RBI – 45 R – 0 SB
Aaron Rowand, .276 AVG – 17 HR – 65 RBI – 65 R – 5 SB
Travis Ishikawa, .270 AVG– 14 HR – 60 RBI – 55 R – 2 SB
Emmanuel Burriss, .285 AVG– 2 HR – 45 RBI – 65 R – 28 SB

Nate Schierholtz, .295 AVG – 12 HR – 55 RBI – 40 R – 4 SB
John Bowker, .261 AVG – 10 HR – 30 RBI – 30 R– 1 SB
Eugenio Velez, .278– 1 HR – 25 RBI – 40 R– 17 SB
Dave Roberts, .255– 1 HR – 25 RBI – 30 R– 15 SB

Projected Staff
Tim Lincecum, 14-6, 3.05, 185 K, 68 BB, 1.15
Matt Cain, 15-10, 3.59, 190 K, 82 BB, 1.26
Barry Zito, 9-11, 4.41, 120 K, 80 BB, 1.37
Randy Johnson, 13-7, 3.61, 165 K, 30 BB, 1.22
Jonathan Sanchez, 9-6, 4.01, 165 K, 70 BB, 1.36

Brian Wilson, 35, 3.85, 65 K, 32 BB, 1.37
Jeremy Affeldt, 7, 3.40, 75 K, 28 BB, 1.28
Bob Howry, 3, 3.65, 55 K, 17 BB, 1.24