Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans
Written by: John Locklear
Many fantasy owners toss and turn when it inevitably becomes time to hold the draft lottery for the year’s quickly approaching draft season. For those of you select few who are lucky enough to hold the number one pick in this year’s draft, you have a big decision ahead of you. It’s widely agreed upon in fantasy circles that this year’s top overall pick comes down to two players -- Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson? Both have tremendous upside, both score touchdowns and both are always a carry away from taking one to the house. What it ultimately comes down to is which one has the least amount of question marks? Which one is the closest thing to a can’t miss pick?
It’s Chris Johnson, and in terms of question marks, it’s not even close.
Few things remain uncertain in regards to the Titans’ All-Pro RB. Not only has Johnson proven he can carry a full workload and stay healthy, but he also has proven that he can hang with Adrian Peterson in the touchdown department -- something no one could have predicted going into last year. When it was all said and done, Chris Johnson’s 16 total touchdowns may have fallen a couple short of Peterson’s 18, but it was the Titans RB that finished just under 700 total yards of offense MORE than the Vikings workhorse. On top of that, CJ2K still has an active streak of 11 straight games rushing for at least 100 yards -- always good for a bonus point, or two depending on league scoring. While it is likely Johnson will see a drop in production, that drop should still result in at least a 1,500-yard rushing season, with his receiving and touchdown totals likely to stay around the same.
Don’t forget about Adrian Peterson’s propensity for turning the ball over either. In 2009, Peterson fumbled the ball seven times (not including his horrible Conference Championship game), losing it six times and handicapping his overall fantasy production. Chris Johnson, however, has fumbled and lost the ball only four times his whole career, giving fantasy owners more bang for their buck. And just in case you needed one more reason to take Johnson over Peterson, look no further than the beating the two bodies have taken in the span of their young careers. While Johnson has shied away from punishment when given the opportunity, at times, it seems like Peterson looks to take on a beating (or apply one). Remember, Peterson has shown a knack to be dinged up at times, and while that may have only cost him a couple games so far in his career, the body can only take so much before you start pushing your luck.
For those owners who are scared off by Johnson’s possible holdout going into training camp, I tell you not to fret yet. It’s still very early to be worrying about what kind of effect it will have on Johnson should he decide to sit out. Now, if August comes around and we are one or two preseason games in and Johnson is still nowhere to be seen, hit that panic button, but for now breathe easy. No running back ever comes into the fantasy season without any question marks, but if Johnson gets past this contract dispute, he may be the closest anyone’s ever gotten to it. On draft day, pass on the fumbles, pass on the guy looking for punishment, pass on the least productive of the two guys mentioned, and go all-in with Chris Johnson.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Written by: Dave Steiner
I just hope I'm lucky enough to get to choose between these two in my drafts this year, and if I'm forced to pick, I'm taking A.P. All Day. I know everyone will likely take Chris Johnson #1 overall, especially after last season, but one thing I've learned in my years of watching the NFL is: Defenses always catch up to offenses. Of course, there is an exception to this rule, but his name is Peyton Manning, not Chris Johnson. After a player has an outstanding year, defenses gameplan to contain them. Defensive players get up for the game against those players and focus on stopping them, not wanting to be embarrassed. This leads to a downturn in production, not a repeat of their breakout season, which is what should be expected from Chris Johnson this season. He will still be very good; just not as good as last year.
On the other hand, A.P. has already faced this increased scrutiny, and we've seen how he responded. Here's a look at his past three seasons:
2007: 1,341 yards, 13 TD's, 238 carries
2008: 1,760 yards, 10 TD's, 363 carries
2009: 1,383 yards, 18 TD's, 314 carries
In his 2008 breakout campaign, A.P. ran roughshod on opposing defenses, but was somewhat corralled in 2009, due to increased attention from opposing D's. Still, the 1,819 total yards and 18 TD's he put up last season was very impressive, and is close to what fantasy owners should expect from him this year. Peterson also addressed one of his deficiencies by catching 43 passes for 436 yards which placed him 5th among running backs in receiving yards. Now, the only remaining question about Peterson's game is his propensity to turn the ball over, but I believe it will be a non-issue this season. A.P. is a consummate professional, and early word out of Minnesota is that he will be adjusting his grip on the ball to better shield it from defenders.
Once again, if you are able to land either of these guys in your fantasy draft, you won't be disappointed. They are the best in the business and will put up big time numbers, but Chris Johnson comes with a bit more uncertainty. How much will his production be affected by increased defensive scrutiny? Will his smaller build hold up to the pounding? Will he struggle out of the gate after a potential hold-out? Will he actually hold-out? Questions, questions, questions. While there are no guarantees in fantasy sports, All Day is as close as a player will come to fitting the bill. Do yourself, and your team, a favor and take the safer bet in Adrian Peterson, a virtual lock for another great season.
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