Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore RavensWritten by John Locklear
In my opinion, I think the debate between who to take at number three overall is the biggest question mark leading up to fantasy drafts. While I’m sure I may be in the minority in thinking so, I think there is a case to be made for both Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice to be drafted AHEAD of Adrian Peterson.
But that is a topic for another day.
Last year, no one was a bigger fan of Maurice Jones-Drew than yours truly. Not only did his rushing totals go up by 500+ yards (from '08), but his total number of touchdowns increased by two -- numbers that welcomed him into the world of fantasy super stardom. It is those kind of numbers that make it hard to pass on him when he’s sitting there staring you square in the face at number three, but that is exactly what I’m telling you to do.
Hop on the Ray Rice Express and ride that train all fantasy season long. The guy is a monster. 1,339 yards on the ground (5.3 YPC), another 702 through the air and eight total touchdowns. Numbers that are first pick overall good, had Chris Johnson decided not to be super-human last year. There are few things to nit-pick with Ray Rice’s game. Critics can’t point to a sophomore jinx because the kid put up insane numbers in his sophomore campaign. Rice can play all three downs -- he’s a better than average blocker and with his receiving totals mentioned earlier, he has proven he can catch the ball out of the backfield. Still, the one big question regarding Rice will be his ability to score touchdowns.
Willis McGahee is still in Baltimore and while there is no doubt who the number one guy is, experts and owners are worried McGahee’s presence will ultimately lead to him stealing touchdowns away from Rice. And I can’t really fault them for that. McGahee will take away a few goal-line carries that turn into six for the Ravens and drive Rice owners a little nuts, but in the long run those touchdowns will mean very little. McGahee’s role in the offense will likely decrease even more this year, which should equate to more goal-line opportunities than Rice had a year ago.
Now, I can hear MJD guy flapping his gums, “Well, you know MJD doubled Rice’s touchdown totals last year, right?” Yeah guy, I do, however, it’s a flawed point to have when comparing the two running backs for this upcoming season. One, using that point assumes that Jones-Drew will stay around 16 touchdowns again, something I don’t see happening with Jacksonville’s offense likely taking a step back this season. Two, who’s to say Ray Rice stays where he was last year? Unlike the Jags, Baltimore did get better on offense. The addition of Anquan Boldin and another year’s worth of experience for QB Joe Flacco will keep defenses honest -- meaning a better passing attack and more open lanes for Rice to run through.
Maurice Jones-Drew has likely hit his fantasy ceiling, and while I am in no way saying he can’t have numbers close to what he had last year, I do believe Ray Rice is just scratching the surface of what he can do. 2,000 total yards of offense and eight touchdowns in only his second year of play? It’s scary to think of what he can do with 300 carries and increased opportunities with the ball in his hands.
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Written by Dave Steiner
Hmmm..... MJD or Ray Rice, MJD or Ray Rice. It really is a tough decision facing fantasy owners this draft season. Both guys had great years in 2009, and both should be just as productive this season. But which player is the better, safer bet? That question may not be able to be answered until after the coming season, but I know my money is on Maurice Jones-Drew.
John makes some excellent points in the above argument, namely that MJD's rushing total increased by 500+ yards for a total of 1,391, and he scored 2 more touchdowns in 2009 than in 2008 for a total of 16. That's right, MJD scored 16 touchdowns in 2009, second only to Peterson's 18. Think it was a fluke? As a back-up to Fred Taylor in 2008, he had 14 TD's. In 2007, he hit paydirt 9 times, and in his rookie season, he scored 15 times. That's an average of 13.5 TD's for every season he's played! He led the league in red zone carries last year, and has scored more times in the last four years than any running back not named LaDainian Tomlinson. The guy's a machine, and barring injury, there's absolutely no reason to think he'll have less than 1200+ yards rushing, 300+ yards receiving, and 10+ touchdowns... and that's his floor. I'd say that makes him a very safe choice to anchor your fantasy team.
Just like I said in my argument for Adrian Peterson vs. Chris Johnson, can you really go wrong with either of these players? They're both good runners, dangerous as receivers out of the backfield, and they are both the focal points of their offense; or are they? Obviously MJD is; I mean, just look at the other weapons the Jags have on offense: David Garrard at QB (average at best), Mike Sims-Walker as WR1 (underachiever until last season and a perennial injury risk), no real WR2, and Marcedes Lewis and Zach Miller at TE (neither of these guys scares opposing D's). With this collection of talent, or lack thereof, the Jags really don't have a choice but to heavily rely on Jones-Drew.
On the other hand, while Ray Rice will definitely be one of the stars of the Ravens offensive attack, he won't be the only star: Joe Flacco at QB (future star), Anquan Boldin at WR1 (stoked to have Flacco throwing passes instead of Leinart), Derrick Mason at WR2 (ultra-consistent and should benefit even more with Boldin's presence), Demetrius Williams, Donte Stallworth, and Mark Clayton at WR3 (None are studs, but all are better than anyone the Jags have at WR2), and Todd Heap and Ed Dickson at TE (good combo of old and new talent). And did I mention that Willis McGahee will be back to vulture TD's again this season? (He had 12 rushing touchdowns in 2009 to Rice's 7.)
Look, Ray Rice is a stud, and I'm in no way telling you not to draft him. But expecting him to improve on his outstanding 2009 is a slippery slope. In reality, how much more can he improve? Will he have 2,500+ total yards? 10+ TD's? Or will he slightly regress due to a shift in the offense away from a run-first team to take advantage of Flacco's arm and his stable of quality receivers? He's still going to be very good, and I hope I get to draft him this year; I just won't draft him over MJD.
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PHOTO CREDITS: Ray Rice frontpage and in article, Keith Allison
Maurice Jones-Drew in article, Jeff Kern
