Brent Celek, TE, Philadelphia Eagles
Written by Bud Stafford
I like Tony Gonzalez. I liked him in Kansas City. He outperformed my expectations in his first year in Atlanta. He’s a Cal guy. He’s a monster. He’s a first ballot Hall of Famer. He’s one of the best tight ends of all time. But I’m not drafting an all-time team. I’m drafting for the 2010 season. I’m drafting based on what I think is going to happen this year, not last year, and not five years ago.
And I’m drafting Brent Celek.
In 2009, these were the stats for the two players:
Brent Celek: 76 receptions, 971 yards, 8 TD's
Tony Gonzalez: 83 receptions, 867 yards, 6 TD's
Pretty close, right? Put on a blindfold, flip a coin, take either guy and be happy, right? Not.
Gonzalez’s numbers, at age 33, represented 13 less receptions, almost 200 fewer yards and 4 less touchdowns than the previous season. Notice a trend? Here’s a hint – the words “less” and “fewer” denote a downward trend. On the other hand, Celek, in his first season as a starter at age 24, caught 50 more receptions than the previous year for 670 more yards. Key word? More. More is better than less. I looked it up.
Detractors may say, yeah, but Donovan McNabb is gone. He’s got Kevin Kolb throwing to him. Kevin Kolb! To which I say – yeah, baby! Kevin Kolb! Andy Reid wasn’t born yesterday; he knows quarterbacks. Do you think he would have traded Donovan McNabb if he didn’t think Kevin Kolb could be a productive NFL quarterback? Kolb started two games for the Eagles in 2009 when McNabb was injured. In those two games, he threw for 391 and 327 yards. Not bad, for Kolb. But even better – in those two games that Kolb started, Celek went for a two-game total of 16 catches for 208 yards and a touchdown.
And funny we should mention Kevin Kolb and Brent Celek in the same sentence. In the same paragraph. It turns out they’re best friends off the field, and roommates when the team travels. Think there isn’t a vibe between these two guys? Think they aren’t motivated to show the Eagles fans and the NFL that they can thrive in a post-McNabb world?
Word is that as part of that post-McNabb world, the Eagles will be installing more of a west coast offense in 2010 to take advantage of Kolb’s ability to accurately throw short, quick-release passes. Hmmm, what kind of receiver could be the beneficiary of a large number of short, quick-release passes? I know, I know! A tight end! Here’s another tidbit to whet your Celek. The Eagles no longer have Brian Westbrook to run the ball in from short yardage. LeSean McCoy is a good running back, but he’s not a goal line pounder. In 2009, Celek was one of the NFL’s leading targets inside the 10-yard line, as his 8 touchdown grabs would attest. Look for the targets and touchdown numbers to climb in 2010.
Everything I see points to Brent Celek being perhaps the best fantasy tight end for 2010. A bold statement I know, given the Dallas Clarks, Antonio Gates, Vernon Davises and, yes, Tony Gonzalezes of the world, all of whom will put up very respectable numbers for their owners in 2010. But I want more than respectable, I’m greedy, I want the spectacular, and I look for who will be spectacular before they’re spectacular.
For 2010, that guy is Brent Celek.
Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Written by Dave Steiner
Arguing upside is much easier in fantasy sports than trying to convince fantasy owners to draft Mr. Dependable. Every owner wants the next big thing; it's the reason why Sleeper articles are so popular! Catching lightning in a bottle seems to be worth almost as much as winning the league title to some people; but not to me. I want to win. Every league. Every year. I don't, but it's not because I don't put myself in the best possible position to do so. If you've read any of my other draft battles, you've probably realized by now that I like to minimize risk as much as possible. That's not to say that I won't take a chance on some guys with upside, but I certainly won't pass on a proven stud to do it. I prefer the near guarantee of 900 yards and 8 TD's from my TE over the possibility of slightly better stats from another TE who hasn't yet proven that he can perform at that level year in and year out. I know, I'm boring; but there are so few guarantees in fantasy football that I choose not to take risks when the gain is minimal and the shortfall could possibly be precipitous.
Now, I don't necessarily think that Brent Celek will drastically underperform this season. After all, I have him ranked 5th in my personal TE rankings, one spot below Gonzalez. But I do think he comes with more risk now that he has 1st year starter Kevin Kolb throwing him the ball. Yes they're friends and roommates, but what if Kolb struggles under the enormous expectations that Philly fans put on their starting QB? What if he fails to adapt to the changing defenses who will have the opportunity to study his game film week-to-week and gameplan to stop him? What happens to Celek's production then? If Kolb succeeds, then of course Celek could have a big year, but keep in mind that for the Eagles to be at their best, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and LeSean McCoy will all have to see their share of touches in the passing game as well.
As for Tony Gonzalez, he's firmly entrenched as the #2 option in the Falcons' passing attack, and has been as consistently productive as any player in the league over his storied career. In the last five years alone, he's averaged 85.8 receptions, 980.4 yards, and 5.6 TD's a season. He will be 34 years old this season, which some people will hold against him, but before you take that stance, just know that he's missed a grand total of two games in his career and none in the last three seasons. And for the kicker, he's only fumbled the ball twice, once in '98 and once in '99, in his 13 years in the league! Add all of this up, and you're talking about one of the all-time sure things in fantasy football!
Obviously Bud disagrees with me on this and has pointed out that Gonzalez had a “down” year in 2009, but it can be argued, and I will do just that, that the entire Falcon offense had a bit of a down year. Still, 83 catches for 867 yards and 6 touchdowns playing for a new team, in a new system, with a young QB, in what was a “down” year shouldn't be looked at as a negative. On the contrary, those factors just highlight how dependable Gonzalez is, because even with all of those factors stacked against him, he still finished as a Top 5 TE at season's end.
So, if you want go for the upside, excitement, and possible let-down that comes with drafting a guy based on potential, then by all means, draft Brent Celek. But if you want safe (solid), boring (guaranteed) production from your tight end position, there's not a better choice than Tony Gonzalez, who will once again be a Top 5 fantasy TE in 2010.
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