Who will be the better fantasy quarterback in three years -- Matthew Stafford or Mark Sanchez?

Nick Carmichael

John Locklear

Matt Stafford.

Sanchez should win the starting job out of camp for the Jets and then will be thrown into the fiery media circus of New York…aka Hell. He will have pressure to win right away and this could either help or hurt a young QB, but it’s usually the latter. One thing he does have is a solid running game to lean on, and head coach Rex Ryan wants to have a run-heavy offense, much like in Baltimore. Taking Shonn Greene solidified the running game for years to come. But, the major key is the Jets not asking too much of Sanchez now, which could hinder his confidence down the road.

Stafford essentially is going to an expansion team in the Detroit Lions, and Detroit still has a lot of building to do around him, which could take a few years…of fifty. If the Lions can manage to improve their situation at WR, I know they have Calvin Johnson, but they still need to find a WR that can move the sticks on a consistent basis, which will be a huge safety valve for Stafford, maybe Brandon Pettigrew is that guy, but they’re going to need his blocking skills on the line, trust me. While Stafford’s big arm is going to benefit Johnson’s lateral game, it is also going to set him back, fantasy wise for at least year one. The key to Stafford’s long term success is that the Lions bring him along slowly While he will compete with Daunte Culpepper to start, he likely won’t win the job out of camp and should hold a clipboard at least until the Lions Week Seven bye. Stafford has the tools to be a franchise QB, but here’s to hoping the Lions learned from their mistakes with Joey Harrington; he can’t be running for his life behind a Swiss cheese offensive line. As he grows, so will Calvin Johnson and I think the Lions got it right in taking Stafford, because in three years from now, Stafford to Johnson could be one sweet connection that will bring music to fantasy owners’ ears.

A lot can happen in three years, but I think with the offensive weapons Matthew Stafford will have at Detroit, I think he will be the better fantasy quarterback in three years.  I honestly believe Detroit is a left tackle away (providing Stafford is the answer at quarterback), from having a good offensive line, and something special on offense.  Calvin Johnson is already a superstar in the NFL, Kevin Smith is already a solid NFL running back, and under-valued in fantasy football and while Brandon Pettigrew can block exceptionally, he is also a big target over the middle.  Stafford also has a better skill set than that of Mark Sanchez. While everybody knows about the cannon attached to his shoulder, Stafford’s accuracy is underrated.  At Georgia, Stafford’s numbers (completion percentage being the main statistic), suffered due to inexperience along the offensive line.  That bad line could have been a blessing in disguise, however, because Stafford is accommodated to being under pressure often and still making the big throws.  Sanchez, however, is used to infinite time in the pocket and having very little pressure in his face; something that will change in the big leagues.  There is no doubt in my mind if he had played at USC that Stafford would have posted bigger and better numbers than Sanchez and this discussion would be a moot point.

I believe Stafford pans out for the Lions, and since I’d rather have Calvin Johnson, Kevin Smith and Brandon Pettigrew as my toys than I would Jerricho Cotchery, Shonn Greene (assuming this is Thomas Jones’ last year with the Jets) and Dustin Keller, Stafford is the better option.  Mark it down -- in three years the Lions’ offensive line will be vastly improved with a new left tackle, and a seasoned Gosder Cherilus. Kevin Smith, who has already shown off his impressive football talents, is a 1,200 yard rusher, and good fantasy start and Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson is among the best connections in all of fantasy football.

Which rookie running back ends up being a fantasy starter by year's end?

Nick Carmichael

John Locklear

Has to be Chris Wells. The Cards are thrilled to get themselves a runner that some had pegged to go in the Top 10 of this draft. Wells is an absolute beast when he gets the rock in his hands and is nearly impossible to arm tackle. Edgerrin James was released, which clears the way for Wells to step right in and make an impact in all fantasy leagues by Week One. His receiving skills need some work, but the Buckeyes didn’t ask him to catch the ball and the Cards won’t either, not when you have Larry Fitzgerald, and hopefully Anquan Boldin in the fold. Want a projection? Wells is going to be a Brandon Jacobs-lite in his first season, with ability to produce along the same lines. He would have been an ideal fit in an offense that is more run focused. Instead he lands in a high-powered offense, so the huge TD totals could come pouring in as early as this season. Tim Hightower is still going to steal some carries from Wells, but it seems the Cards finally got themselves a franchise RB, as long as he can keep himself healthy.

A little before the draft I had mentioned in a mock draft, one in which I had Chris “Beanie” Wells going to Arizona, that I loved that situation for him should he land there. Well, Wells was drafted to the Cardinals and I still love him in Glendale.  Tell me who on that Arizona roster is better than Wells right now?  Edgerrin James has been given his official release (and wasn’t better than Wells, right now, anyway), and Tim Hightower struggled come the end of the season, as he was rendered utterly ineffective.  That’s why as long as Wells gets to Arizona’s training camp on time he will be the starting running back and could put up big numbers immediately in that high octane offense. Larry Fitzgerald is considered by many to be the best receiver in the league, and couple him with another stud in Anquan Boldin (who appears to be stuck in Arizona, for now) and safeties are unable to stack the box to stop Wells.  He might lose some touches to Tim Hightower, but Wells is the type of back Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt has been envisioning for this offense since he left Pittsburgh.  Expect 1,000 plus yards and 6-9 touchdowns.

Which rookie receiver or tight end ends up having an impact on fantasy rosters in ’09?

Nick Carmichael

John Locklear

Even though he didn’t end up in the most favorable spot for his fantasy value out of the gate, Michael Crabtree is the most NFL ready rookie WR this year. The Raiders basically gift wrapped Crabtree to their rivals by taking Darrius Heyward-Bay before Crabtree. With Mike Martz out of the picture in San Fran, the Niners are not going to be so pass happy, and their QB spot is shaky, which is why I think his value will be limited. But, Crabtree is a specimen who can line up anywhere on the field and should be able to do just enough to get some recognition among fantasy owners. If you are looking for the ceiling in his rookie year, then you have to compare him to Anquan Boldin. Crabtree has some explosiveness in small space, much like Q, but Boldin simply came out of nowhere when he was a rookie. Crabtree will not have that luxury; he will be expected to produce for the Niners from day one.

Michael Crabtree is the obvious person to name here, but I don’t think he will have the biggest impact on fantasy rosters.  Jeremy Maclin comes into a dream situation in Philly. The Eagles have a good run game to keep the safeties honest, DeSean Jackson is already an above average receiver and solid fantasy option and will draw attention away from Maclin. Uh… oh yeah, and Donovan McNabb is his quarterback.  The only knock on Maclin – his route running – will not be a problem in Philly, seeing as their passing game doesn’t rely on running complicated routes.  Maclin is already better than Kevin Curtis, Reggie Brown, Jason Avant and Hank Baskett, so don’t expect him to be kept off the field very long.  Everyone saw what DeSean Jackson did when he was given his chance last year. Well, Maclin is bigger, taller and more talented than Jackson was coming into his rookie year. Maclin will shine and shine early in that Eagle offense.

Which big name rookie will disappoint fantasy

owners in '09?

Nick Carmichael

John Locklear

With the way Josh McDaniels likes to run a committee backfield, I'm going with Knowshon Moreno. The pick was a head scratcher, because Denver had so many needs on the defensive side of the ball, but Moreno has a chance to be a special player, just not this season. There is a positive note in his favor. The fact that McDaniels thinks Moreno is an every down back in the NFL and he never really had himself a back like that in New England. This season, though, with how crowded they are at the position, Moreno is still going to have to fight for carries with LaMont Jordan, J.J. Arrington, and Correll Buckhalter (Selvin Young was waived recently), which will make him a fantasy question mark heading into the season. The Denver RB situation is one to monitor, because you better believe they want Moreno to emerge as their #1 to start the season and with that comes a boost in value and the possibility of changing my answer to the second question in this article.

The immediate name that comes to mind is Knowshon Moreno.  While the Denver back field may not be incredibly packed with talent, it is one that is awfully crowded.  Before the off-season even began, Denver already had Peyton Hillis and Ryan Torrain; add J.J. Arrington, Correll Buckhalter and LaMont Jordan through free agency, and then Moreno through the draft, and it’s a question as to how many carries can go around (even after the release of Selvin Young).  It’s not a knock on Moreno’s talent – he’s super talented. But there is no way you can go into fantasy drafts, at least not right now, expecting him to be a serious fantasy player on your roster until some of those running backs are weeded out of the mix.  Plus, Josh McDaniels is bringing a system from New England that isn’t designed to feature the run game; it’s all about the passing game. Monitor the running back situation during the off-season, but if you don’t see a decrease in size of that back field – Moreno won’t be worth a starting spot on fantasy rosters.

Who will be the fantasy rookie of the year?

Nick Carmichael

John Locklear

For reasons mentioned above, it's Chris Wells. The kid is going to be the feature back in a dynamite offense. If he can somehow manage to work on his receiving skills, it will only add to the package. The only knock on him is the penchant for injury, but Ohio State ran him ragged most of the time and the Cards aren't going to ask that of him, at least not for now. Trust me, and you can even ask John, I have seen Beanie play numerous times and he has scorched my Wolverines a couple of times as well. Chris Wells is the real deal and should be on the radar of all fantasy footballers, especially those in dynasty and keeper leagues.

Jeremy Maclin.  At 6-1, 200 pounds -- Maclin is the lengthy and sure-handed receiver Donovan McNabb has been pestering Eagles management for since his arrival in Philly. Couple those attributes with his great football speed, and Maclin has the potential to not only eventually start on fantasy rosters in ’09, but also be someone who can get you over the hump and win a championship. Maclin won’t be starting on many fantasy rosters come the middle of the season, but he will be putting up starter numbers and will be a pleasant surprise to all those who put their faith in him.  Chris Wells is tempting, and Nick’s right – that guy has made a lot of money from ripping out the hearts of Michigan fans, but with how much the Eagles like to chuck the ball around -- Jeremy Maclin’s potential is through the roof.